February 2023 Market Update

February 09, 2023



Do you know when is the best time to do one of these videos?  You guessed it, when the market had a good month!

SO, Welcome to the February 2023 Market Update. 

Stocks in the U.S. rose over 6% for January.1  Since we all appreciate a little optimism, let me describe how this may be a little better than just any month where the market rises.  Research by Yale Hirsch and the Stock Trader's Almanac found the market will follow S&P 500 January performance. In other words, when the S&P rises in January, the index will more likely end the year higher. The indicator is right 72% of the time.

The January Barometer, as the Almanac calls it, tracked this tendency back more than 70 years, to 1950.

Switching gears to other assets, bond yields came in a bit as reflected in the 10-year U.S. Treasury.  It closed January just shy of 3.50%.3

As we talked about last month, underperforming assets may do well.  In these, I’m referring to stocks outside the U.S.  International stocks, as evidenced by the MSCI EFEA index rose 8.8% for the month and emerging market stocks rose over 9%.4

So following what I believe to be a solid start to the year, what do we have to look forward to?  The primary focus continue to be interest rates and what stance the Federal Reserve takes.  I feel if they continue to be aggressive at fighting inflation, we may experience some volatility.  I also feel that if they back off, we may see the January trend continue.

So what do we have going for us right now?  Stocks are still well off their prior highs and I feel offer a good point to own them, particularly value-based stocks that pay dividends.  To that point, dividend income has been welcome for those seeking to spend from investments.  Interest rates remain elevated versus a year ago and I believe also offer sound income.  In other words, I believe that whatever markets do next we may be in a better position to “bunker down” and invest for the longer term.

So to wrap this up, please let me offer an exciting and heartful Thank you for everyone that attended our Open House in January.  It was a great success and I look forward to seeing you soon.  Thank you!


Disclaimers and Sources

1 Source: Thomson ONE Reuters, S&P 500, 2/1/2023

2 Source: Investors Business Daily, The Big Picture, 1/30/2023

3 Source: CNBC, 10-year US Treasury, 2/1/2023

4 Source: Morningstar, MSCI EAFE and MSCI Emerging Markets Indices, 2/1/2023


The S&P 500 Index is a capitalization-weighted index of 500 stocks designed to measure performance of the broad domestic economy through changes in the aggregate market value of 500 stocks representing all major industries.

The NASDAQ Composite Index measures all NASDAQ domestic and non-U.S. based common stocks listed on The NASDAQ Stock Market. Bonds are subject to credit, market, and interest rate risk if sold prior to maturity.

Bond values will decline as interest rates rise and bonds are subject to availability and change in price.

The fast price swings in commodities will result in significant volatility in an investor’s holdings. Commodities include increased risks, such as political, economic, and currency instability, and may not be suitable for all investors.

Content in this material is for general information only and not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and may not be invested into directly.