Welcome to our March 2025 Market Update!
Before getting into the markets, I apologize for not getting an update out in February…I believe that’s the first month we’ve ever missed!
So now, on to this month’s update…have you heard of the term March Madness? I believe this was coined by the NCAA and applied to the National Collegiate Basketball tournament, but it might as well apply to the markets as well.
Stocks declined 1.4% in February, which knocks the YTD gain down to just over a percent.1
So here’s where the “madness” kicks in, and can you guess what one word best sums up the market volatility? Tariffs. You may have heard me say in the past that the stock market doesn’t like uncertainty and that is exactly what I feel all the tariff headlines continue to present us with. According to LPL Research, tariffs are often used as a negotiating tool, and the on-again, off-again banter appears to show this is no different.2
In my opinion, the not knowing is the dilemma. By this, I mean it is difficult to actually make any kind of assessment on who or what is affected until something sticks with tariffs. So how do we invest in this type of uncertain environment? For starters, uncertainty in markets and economics is nothing new so we have history to fall back on. I feel that avoiding significant bets and properly diversifying one’s portfolio makes the most sense. For example, I believe we don’t want to bet big on US growth companies but rather split an allocation to growth and value. We also are enjoying a higher rate environment than a couple of years ago. The 10-year U.S. Treasury, for example is still solidly above 4% yield.3
So once again, we fall back on the time-tested approach of asset allocation and diversification to ride this out. I’ve been asked: why not just bunker down in cash? The dollar itself has declined almost 6% over the last 2 months.4 I believe this is a significant hit to our purchasing power, or simply put things are still costing us more.
For this very reason, we continue to advocate for precious metals such as gold. The price of gold currently sits above $2,900 an ounce and is a stone’s throw from new record highs.5
In a nutshell, volatility and uncertainty is never fun but also nothing new. I continue to like U.S. stocks from a large company perspective and also like strong high-quality fixed income investments paying a nice yield. Lastly, precious metals continue to add that confidence ingredient I feel is so important to sticking with an investment strategy.
As I’ve been meeting with many clients lately, I’ve enjoyed every minute of it! Thank you for being such a great person to work with and please reach out anytime with any questions or concerns.
Successfully,
Tim Truebenbach, CFP®
Senior Vice President – Financial Advisor
Disclaimers and Sources
1 Source: Thomson ONE Reuters, 3/7/2025, S&P 500
2 Source: LPL Research, Daily Market Update, 3/7/2025, Macro Strategy Team
3 Source: CNBC, U.S. Treasurys, 3/7/2025
4 Source: Marketwatch, U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), 3/7/2025
5 Source: CMI Gold and Silver, Gold Spot Price, 3/7/2025
The economic forecasts set forth in this material may not develop as predicted and there can be no guarantee that strategies promoted will be successful.
Content in this material is for general information only and not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and may not be invested into directly.
There is no guarantee that a diversified portfolio will enhance overall returns or outperform a non-diversified portfolio. Diversification does not protect against market risk.
The S&P 500 is a stock market index tracking the stock performance of 500 of the largest companies listed on stock exchanges in the United States. Indexes are unmanaged and cannot be invested in directly.
Precious metal investing involves greater fluctuation and potential for losses.
Stock investing includes risks, including fluctuating prices and loss of principal.
The fast price swings in commodities will result in significant volatility in an investor’s holdings. Commodities include increased risks, such as political, economic, and currency instability, and may not be suitable for all investors.
Asset allocation does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss.
Bonds are subject to market and interest rate risk if sold prior to maturity. Bond values will decline as interest rates rise. Bonds are subject to availability, change in price, call features and credit risk.
LPL Tracking #706739 - True PW March Market Update
LPL Tracking #708655 - True PW March Market Update Video