Welcome to our August 2026 Market Update!
Wow! Busy month and I apologize for how delayed this report is.
Markets, as reflected in the S&P 500 were virtually flat with the index down on a tenth of a percent.¹ I think this was a “win”…want me to share why?
Interest rates moved significantly higher as evidenced in the 10-year US Treasury. It rose 6% for the month to close at 4.74%.² Usually, interest rates and stocks do the opposite, so in my experience when rates rise stocks usually fall.
As LPL Research put it on July 29th, “the current Bull Market in stocks follows a historically favorable path as four-year-old markets tend to last at least five years.”³ They also stated that strong corporate earnings remain the key driver of market gains.
So let’s re-visit something I brought up last month and take a look at the psychology of markets for a minute. Do you remember this graphic and where you think we are on this curve? In all of the research I follow, I would have to say I see us somewhere around “Optimism.” With all of the negative headlines, including the U.S./Iran war it would be tough to convince me everyone is euphoric and that making money is easy!

Source: Fisher Investments, “Understanding Bull Markets,” Exhibit 1: The Market Sentiment Life Cycle. Quote attributed to Sir John Templeton.

Since next month’s update is only a couple weeks away, I’m going to save my thoughts around a new asset I’m starting to gravitate to and like more and more. Thank you for following this and please let me know if you have any questions or comments.
See ya next month!

Successfully,
Tim Truebenbach, CFP®
Senior Vice President – Financial Advisor

Disclaimers and Sources
1 Source: Thomson ONE Reuters, S&P 500, 6/30/2026 – 7/31/2026
2 Source: CNBC, 10-year US Treasury, 6/30/2026 – 7/31/2026
3 Source: LPL Research, Jeffrey Buchbinder, CFA, 7/29/2026

The economic forecasts set forth in this material may not develop as predicted and there can be no guarantee that strategies promoted will be successful.
Content in this material is for general information only and not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and may not be invested into directly.
The S&P 500 is a stock market index tracking the stock performance of 500 of the largest companies listed on stock exchanges in the United States. Indexes are unmanaged and cannot be invested in directly.
Stock investing includes risks, including fluctuating prices and loss of principal.

 Tracking #1160108 #1161114 

Welcome to our July 2026 Market Update!
Investment markets wrapped up a spectacular first half of the year leading into America’s 250th Birthday! In a bit, I’ll run through the different return asset classes shared with us for the first half of the year. Oddly, stocks finished on a slightly negative note to close June as they declined 1.3%1. I feel this was simply a function of stocks taking a breather more than anything else.

So for the first half of 2026, Bond investments, as reflected in the Barclays Aggregate bond index came in last with a mere .6% return, followed closely by the yield on cash of 1.8%.2 Large cap U.S. stocks rose 10.2%.2 Small cap companies delivered the second most powerful returns with 22.6%.2 The winner were emerging market stocks which returned 24%.2

Having shared all of these numbers, are you feeling optimistic about the markets moving forward? Or do things ring more of a pessimistic tone to you? I’m asking this for a specific reason and to help us determine where things may go next. Take a look at the following graphic and where do you think we’re falling?

Source: Fisher Investments, “Understanding Bull Markets,” Exhibit 1: The Market Sentiment Life Cycle. Quote attributed to Sir John Templeton.

I’ll share my thoughts with you next month as well as where I seeing some of the key elements of the markets, such as AI, interest rates and such.

In the meantime, thank you for tuning in and pleas enjoy a wonderful summer!

Successfully,
Tim Truebenbach, CFP®
Senior Vice President – Financial Advisor 

Disclaimers and Sources
1 Source: CNBC, S&P 500, 5/29/2026 – 6/30/2026
2 Source: JP Morgan 3Q Guide to the Markets, Asset class returns, p.58

The economic forecasts set forth in this material may not develop as predicted and there can be no guarantee that strategies promoted will be successful.
Content in this material is for general information only and not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and may not be invested into directly.
The S&P 500 is a stock market index tracking the stock performance of 500 of the largest companies listed on stock exchanges in the United States. Indexes are unmanaged and cannot be invested in directly.
Stock investing includes risks, including fluctuating prices and loss of principal.

 LPL Tracking #1137591 LPL Tracking #1136108

For starters, please let me thank all of you who attended our Market Outlook Luncheon last month! We had a great lunch and even better information on the prevailing theme in today’s markets: Artificial Intelligence.
The S&P 500 continued to surge ahead in May, advancing just over 5%.¹ I strongly feel this is a result of what I just shared from our event: the strength behind the AI buildout and subsequent strong fundamentals.
In my opinion, the markets may be slightly ahead of themselves and due for a pause of some sort. From the late-March lows, to where we find ourselves I don’t believe markets go straight up (or straight down for that matter) but rather move in a direction, pause and then continue.
International stocks, and specifically emerging markets have produced great numbers as well this year, rising just over 28% year-to-date.²
Small cap stocks have been another unexpected performer, rising 17.50% for the year so far.^3*
Surprisingly, interest rates have remained stubbornly higher as we see the 10-year U.S. Treasury close out the month of May just under 4-1/2%.⁴
Moving ahead, I don’t think much has changed with investing. I would expect some volatility here and there but largely I feel we’re in a good environment, driven by the development of a new technology in AI.
If you have any questions or feedback, please feel free to share them and I want to Thank You for tuning in and continuing to work with me and True Private Wealth…so Thank you and see ya next month. 

Successfully,
Tim Truebenbach, CFP®
Senior Vice President – Financial Advisor 

Disclaimers and Sources
1 Source: Thomson ONE Reuters, S&P 500, 4/3/2026 – 5/29/2026
2 Source: Morningstar Research, MSCI Emerging Markets, 5/29/2026
3 Source: Morningstar Research, Russell 2000 Growth Index, 5/29/2026
4 Source: CNBC, 10-Year US Treasury, 5/29/2026

*The prices of small cap stocks are generally more volatile than large cap stocks. (125-LPL)

The economic forecasts set forth in this material may not develop as predicted and there can be no guarantee that strategies promoted will be successful.
Content in this material is for general information only and not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and may not be invested into directly.
The S&P 500 is a stock market index tracking the stock performance of 500 of the largest companies listed on stock exchanges in the United States. Indexes are unmanaged and cannot be invested in directly.
Stock investing includes risks, including fluctuating prices and loss of principal.

International investing involves special risks such as currency fluctuation and political instability and may not be suitable for all investors. These risks are often heightened for investments in emerging markets. Bond yields are subject to change. Certain call or special redemption features may exist which could impact yield.

 LPL Tracking #1119891